According to this extraordinary study, El Niño is now the strongest it has been in 1,000 years, according to new research from the University of Michigan, which reconstructed ocean surface temperatures over the last millennium by looking at fossilized corals in the Galápagos Islands - a tried and true way of forecasting weather patterns if ever there was one (he said tongue-in-cheekly).
The study, published in the journal Science, found a large recent increase in the variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to previous existing paleorecords - scientific archives of past environmental and climatic conditions preserved in natural materials like ice cores, tree rings, and marine sediments - another tried and true way of forecasting weather patterns if ever there was one (he said tongue-in-cheekly, again).. That increase also parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events.
“We’ve been seeing some very strong El Niño events in the late 20th and early 21st century, and what we didn’t know was how unusual those are,” said lead study author Julie Cole, environmental scientist at the University of Michigan.“We found that, on average, El Niño events have been stronger in the past 40 years than at any time in the past millennium, with higher temperatures that lead to more powerful effects on weather,” Cole wrote.
Is that real science or some shit this guy made up to make himself sound important? And if he's wrong, what did we gain from his 'studies'? We learn what we already know - no news is good news. Color me skeptical again. Juss' sayin'...
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I am so impressed with the arrogance of these people. There is no 100 % foolproof way to forecast the weather three weeks out for any given location but these guys can look at data covering half a million years and confidently predict that 2026 is exactly the year when we will have this thousand-year-high event. Yeah, right.
ReplyDeleteBeen hearing this same BS for years...wasn't there, back when we was but young lads in short pants, a fable describing the exploits of some kid & an imagined wolf? Maybe these "scientists" should read it....
ReplyDeleteWeather fear porn. Still no reason to return to the stone age or give government even one more ounce of power.
ReplyDeleteWe're about to reach the peak of a "solar maximum". So I'm confident as we start cooling off, that too with be "Global Warming".
ReplyDeletealso if the prognosticator is incorrect, what personal consequences must they endure? They have to say "OOPS!" 1,000 times?
ReplyDeleteMake them fear. They will be easier to control.
ReplyDeleteForecasting weather for the next two weeks is a soft science rife with inaccuracies. Using half assed guesses from a millennia ago to predict what's going to happen months or years from now is rubber chicken witch doctor type bullshit.
ReplyDeleteDuring an El Niño year, warm sea surface temperatures cause the subtropical jet stream to meander across Arizona, Texas, down into the Gulf, and then curve northward into Florida. This pattern usually results in more precipitation across the southern tier of the US. Since sea surface temperatures change very slowly (over months), these features last a long time and provide some measure of predictability that it will be stormier than usual over the winter. The models making these predictions range in sophistication from simple linear equations based on sea surface temperature only to complex sets of nonlinear equations with many inputs. They can all be wrong. The researchers are very excited for two reasons: the first is that the SST increase has already reached 2 degrees Celsius, which is very large. The second is that all the models are giving similar answers. However, nature has a way of providing humility when we become over-confident. Most models have an effective range for good accuracy. It will be interesting to see if the current El Niño event exceeds that range.
ReplyDeleteHaving said all that above, Julie Cole (primary author of the article) seems to have an agenda to push climate change. She makes poorly substantiated claims that will likely get pushback.
ReplyDeleteWe didn’t have el nino 40 years ago.
ReplyDeleteWe haven't had a hurricane in Florida in 2+ years. Why isn't THAT headline news?
ReplyDeleteThe climate cultists never claim a victory.
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