Do these selp-proclaimed experts get paid extra for saying shit that's meant to have us shitting our drawers? Certainly seems like it. Anyway, they're now saying that stress levels beneath Southern California’s two most dangerous fault systems have climbed to their highest in at least 1,000 years, prompting fresh concerns that the long-feared “Big One” may be drawing closer.
Okay - stop right there. that's why I'm skeptical of statements like that. How the fuck could they possible know what those 'stress levels' were in 1126AD? It's simple - they can't - but that doesn't stop them from making bold-faced statements like that and expecting us to accept it just because they know a little bit more than we do about this stuff.
The meant-to-be alarming findings come from a new study from the AGU Journal examining the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems, in which researchers found that tectonic stress - they say - has reached levels not seen in a millennium. As if somebody a thousand years ago had that data and knew what to do with it. The people around that long ago barely knew how to make fire, ferfucksake. Juss' sayin'.
Believe what you will...
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When this happens it will take 30 days for LA to notice.
ReplyDeleteOffhand, I'd expect that microscopic and perhaps X-ray or other measurements (sound?) can in fact assess historic stress levels in appropriately dated rock samples. Pressure often leaves behind evidence (cracks, changes in density, even formation of mineral and crystal forms that only happen under specific conditions). There will be error bars on the estimates, sure, but dismissing reports like this because one doesn't understand the tech is a simplistic approach. It's analogous to saying that since I can't interpret an NMR spectrum the entire technique and results from it are invalid. (NMR is a method of determining structures of organic molecules, and is well validated, 70+ year old technique - BUT it's pretty much limited in use to application by PhD level organic chemists; to anyone else, it's just a wiggly line on graph paper and esoteric as all get out. Big magnets, radio transmitters, and it works by changing the quantum state of a tiny percent of the target atoms. for very short times. A nearly perfect example of Clarke's Law.)
ReplyDeleteIn a linear time frame of reference, EVERYONE is always one second closer to an event than they were one second ago. Something big is ALWAYS coming. Its just like how they keep saying on "The Curse of Oak Island" that they are "closer than ever to discovering the treasure." No S#!+. By definition. Having grown up in L.A. and having experienced Sylmar (1970), Northridge, Big Bear, and countless 4s and 5s, a giant one there will surely mess them up big time. If their theories about one trigging more along the San Andreas come true, it could be a sight to see. So glad to be out of there.
ReplyDeleteTheir statement is CYA. When it happens they will point to all the times they gave a warning.
ReplyDeleteAs much about CYA and justifying more GRANT MONIES. For science, sadly, THAT is a HUGE motivating factor...not truth.
DeleteFor some insights into paleoseismology, take a moment to read "The Really Big One" at https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one which is surprisingly easy to understand. One thing's for certain: San Andreas is not the fault line to be feared. The Cascadia subduction zone off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, when it finally goes, will wreak destruction on an unimaginable scale.
ReplyDeleteIn which case will be the size of RI.
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember this song from 1969?
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/EsiFotSjgpQ?list=RDEsiFotSjgpQ
Yes and it will be huge or not during any time over the last century or the next. Results may vary... We Xers have lived through at least a few dozen end of the world as we know it predictions. These make me feel like a kid again ... Does anyone still have one of those nuclear bomb shelter/ school desk?
ReplyDeleteIf the Cascadia subduction zone goes, Venezuela will look like a picnic.
ReplyDelete