As of October, 23 U.S. states face high recession risk, or are already in recession. By contrast, 16 states, including Texas and Kentucky, are expanding based on analysis from Moody’s. U.S. GDP is made up of many smaller, distinct state economies fueling national growth.
In 2025, states responsible for about a third of U.S. GDP are in recession, or face high recession risk. Another third are expanding, including Florida and Utah, based on payrolls, employment, and other key economic data. This graphic shows recession risk by state in 2025, based on analysis from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
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