An unusual model for economists — the so-called ‘misery index’ — bodes badly for President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party in the upcoming midterm elections. Based on past voting patterns, the Democrats can expect to lose 30 to 40 seats in the House and also several in the Senate, says a Bloomberg Economics study. In that scenario, Democrats would lose their already-weak grip on both chambers and Republicans would control Congress for the rest of Biden’s term.
The misery index is calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates to create a measure of voters’ likely attitudes when they cast ballots on November 8. By October, the index could have hit 12 percent. Barring a spike in early 2020 at the start of the Covid-19, that would be the highest level since the dragged-out recession in 2011.
Models for predicting elections are far from perfect — but the misery index has been relatively successful over the decades. Other midterm election forecasts range from sweeping Republican gains to an effective wash. Still, there is a consensus in Washington that inflation at 9.1 percent and high gas prices will hurt Democrats.
In an honest election the Demonrats get shellacked. But this election will be even further from honest than 2020 was. The Dems have proven they can manufacture as many votes as required to win any election they choose.
ReplyDeleteUntil we burn the house down...
ReplyDeleteYou can betcherass that the inflation is MUCH higher than 9.1% because the clowns in charge keep moving the goalposts - removing some items from calculations, inserting (very few) others, to push the data in the direction they want. They keep putting lipstick on a pig, but most people are now ignoring "teh experts" on this crap!
ReplyDeleteI'm saying Inflation is in the 20-30% range. Prove me wrong.